Commonwealth June 2013 Market Thoughts
Commonwealth CIO, Brad McMillan shares his thoughts on the June rally, the economic recovery, housing affordability, and the potential challenges we still face.
Agree or disagree in the comments.
Ignorance Is Bliss
This is your last chance.
After this, there is no turning back. You take the blue pill – the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill – you stay in Wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes.
Carol Peppe Hewitt Author of Financing Our Foodshed in Portland
Join Friends of Family Farmers and Slow Money NW to learn how individual investors can help build local food systems.
Carol Peppe Hewitt is a Co-founder of Slow Money North Carolina and author of Financing our Foodshed: Growing Local Food with Slow Money and will be sharing from her recent book, Financing our Foodshed to mark the launch of Slow Money NW’s new chapter, Slow Money Upper Willamette.
Where: Equal Exchange, 1033 SE Main, Portland
When: Thursday, May 30th, Doors open at 5:30, Event begins at 6:30 pm
Cost: $5 suggested donation
RSVPing here>>>
Jim Grant Quote
The cardinal flaw of prosperity is the “elongation” of productive processes. Thus, the economic purpose of a slump is to shorten…the structure back to the appropriate length, redirecting labor and capital out of the overdeveloped industries and back to the needful ones.
The End of Nautilus
The End of Nautilus
This week marked the conclusion of an investment initiated nearly five years ago. Nautilus is a local company based in Vancouver, WA that has seen tremendous success, been on the brink of bankruptcy, and now has returned to a measure of prosperity. My initial investment thesis finally proved correct, but it took a few years longer than I’d anticipated. All in all it was a profitable position and demonstrated that fundamental analysis and patience is still a viable philosophy. For more information read what the Oregonian had to say following Monday’s conference call here.
Read moreI’m convinced that economic life
is ruled by processes and principles we didn’t invent and can’t transcend…the more we learn of these processes and the better we respect them, the better our economies will get along.
The Real Meaning of Economic Development
On Saturday, I spent the afternoon at a Washougal City Council workshop intended to revisit the cities economic development plan, with a specific emphasis on the downtown core. The following post is a summary of my thoughts over the last few days. There is more to come, and this is not intended as a comprehensive answer, but more of an invitation to discuss how a city develops it’s sense of communal identity and the part citizens play in the process.
Redefining Economic Health
This post started with a seemingly simple question. Is it possible for an economy to be healthy without growing?
As a starting point, it is important to understand the method presently used for determining our nations economic health. For 7 decades, we have used Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth as the primary indicator of health, the rationale being expansion is necessary and thus preferable. But what, exactly, is GDP measuring? Simply put, GDP is a mathematical formula, standardized by Simon Kuznets, to calculate the market value of every product and service created in a country over a given period of time. It’s analagous to measuring your annual household income but ignoring every other aspect; such as expenses, debt, and assets. It is a measurement that as Robert Kennedy stated “measures everything in short, except that which makes life worth while.” Interestingly it was also Kuznets who warned “the welfare of a nation can scarcely be inferred from a measure of national income.”
In addition to his work on measuring GDP, Simon Kuznets also proved that John Maynard Keynes’ income assumptions give inaccurate predictions over longer (meaningful) spans of time. Keynes, not insignificantly, is the economist whose assumptions form the basis of America’s prevailing economic policy, the essence of which is to use government credit (money printed or borrowed) to artificially stimulate demand in order to increase supply in an attempt to avoid recession. The result of this erroneous strategy is inflation. Inflation being that covert consumer of wealth, steadily deteriorating the value of money. It is why bread and food and houses cost many times what they did for our grandparents. What is perhaps most disturbing is that the debasement of our currency (knowingly or otherwise) is routinely advocated by politicians and citizens alike who claim to value our democracy but fail to comprehend the consequences of such actions. Keynes himself wrote in The Economic Consequences of the Peace:
“Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalist System was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”
To summarize: we have a flawed economic indicator as the basis for inaccurate assumptions used to craft an economic policy that results in destruction of our economic system.
Clearly, an economic policy with an insatiable need for growth does not result in an improved quality of life and once a certain level of economic development is achieved there appears to be a point of diminishing returns which, once passed, further inflation becomes detrimental to personal freedom and happiness. In addition to the destructive financial effects of achieving our misplaced objectives, we’ve also managed to incur a national debt that probably can’t be repaid honestly, disconnect people from place, strip the land of resources, increased the frequency and magnitude of economic cycles, and the outsourcing of entire industries. Is it reasonable to conclude that infinite GDP growth is not the optimum way of achieving fiscal health or individual liberty and the habit of measuring it should be abandoned?
One response to the economic malaise has been an international movement to improve the method by which economic health is measured. The report, “Mis-Measuring Our Lives” by Stiglitz, Sen, and Fitoussi is perhaps the first concerted effort to, as they assert, “align better the metrics of well-being with what actually contributes to the quality of life.” In it, they provide specific recommendations aimed at shifting focus from the measurement of production to individual well being. It also reveals what I believe to be a primary impediment to recovery, namely, that we are focused on the wrong goals. If the main idea is to promote “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness,” shouldn’t we follow the adage that what gets measured gets improved and start monitoring actions and policy targeting that end? This point is reinforced by the trio’s conclusion that “in the quest to increase GDP, we may end up with a society in which the citizens are worse off.”
The good news is that we (the citizens) have influence over the economy. By consciously screening what we buy, where we shop, where and how we work, as well as the representatives we elect, we can regain the economic freedom, prosperity, and liberty our Founding Fathers intended. While the news is good, the application is not easy. The discipline to voluntarily (not through regulation or coercion) reduce our consumption of gadgets from China, food from South America, and oil from the Middle East, may be more than most people are willing to undertake. It is through our own self imposed limits and the cultivation of local economies and community that we’ll be able reclaim the freedoms, both economic and civil, that we once experienced.
The takeaway: We should focus on and measure what we want to achieve: individual freedom and opportunity, rather than fixating on failed economic theory. In a future post I’ll discuss how present policies have contributed to the very social and economic difficulties they were intended to overcome.
What are your suggestions for improving the health of our communities and country?